Pound to Dollar Forecast

Standard Chartered's wealth management division are bearish on the U.S. Dollar on a six to twelve month view as they sense a major turning point for global currency markets is approaching.

The British Pound has not reached a bottom according to new research from UK high-street lender and international investment bank Barclays.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate has clung onto much of the gain made in the wake of June’s Bank of England (BoE) policy decision but without any further corrective decline by the Dollar, Sterling could be likely to consolidate within roughly a 1.2171 to 1.2323 range during the week ahead.

"We maintain our view that the USD is likely to be stronger for longer" - Rabobank.

The Pound to Dollar rate rebounded sharply from near March 2020 lows last week and could look to extend its recovery in the days ahead but much depends on U.S. bond yields and the impact of remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers as well as a looming flurry of UK economic figures.

The domestic highlight for the British Pound this week will be the release of inflation data on Wednesday although Friday's retail sales read will also be highly anticipated.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate entered the new week nursing fresh wounds near two-year lows and would risk further heavy losses in the days ahead without a ‘hawkish’ surprise from the Bank of England (BoE) or a possibly unlikely show of patience from the Federal Reserve (Fed).  

The Pound to Dollar rate enters the new week with its back against the ropes near the 1.25 handle and could struggle to hold off a buoyant greenback ahead of Friday’s all-important U.S. inflation figures for May, which could be key to whether Sterling is able to avoid a retest of last month’s lows.

Seasonal factors could help extend a recent recovery in the Pound to Dollar exchange rate say foreign exchange analysts at Société Générale.

New research from Investec finds the "gloom in macro expectations for the UK may be overdone" and they forsee a recovery in the British Pound over coming months as a result.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate has staged a robust rebound from the depths of its mid-month lows but could struggle for further traction over the coming days as key U.S. economic reports garner the lion’s share of market attention in what will be a quiet period for the UK economic calendar. 

The UK is the "poster child for stagflation" says investment bank JP Morgan as it announces "pretty deep cuts" to their British Pound forecasts.

The Pound to Dollar rate has recovered sharply from two-year lows following a favourable turn in UK economic data and a rebound by a heavily sold Chinese Renminbi, which could potentially lift it further this week and may even prompt a test of technical resistance up near 1.2662 on the charts.

The Dollar should make a decisive turn lower by Autumn says Morgan Stanley, which would allow Pound Sterling and other major currencies to recover.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate has deepened an almost year-long downtrend but could attempt a corrective rebound this week if an easing of coronavirus-related restrictions in Shanghai is welcomed by global markets.

As a "tide of pessimism" hits the UK, expect further GBP weakness says BNP Paribas.

The Dollar will turn tail and retreat from around mid-year says analysts at Westpac.

The Pound to Dollar exchange rate crumbled further into oversold territory on the charts last week but still risks additional losses that could pull it down to 1.2255 or below in the days ahead as mounting Chinese economic growth risks support the greenback ahead of the latest U.S. inflation report. 

"The narrative is so powerful at the moment it is hard to see sterling recovering much ground" - JP Morgan.

There may now be scope for the Fed to defer this any announcement on QT this Wednesday, which would potentially act as a dampener for U.S. bond yields and perhaps also for the Dollar too.